If we can set aside our prejudices and learn to approach them properly-understanding how our own preconceptions lead us astray-statistics can point to innovative ways we can live better and work smarter.Īs “perhaps the best popular economics writer in the world” ( New Statesman), Tim Harford is an expert at taking complicated ideas and untangling them for millions of readers. At heart, they are human behavior seen through the prism of numbers and are often the most illuminating ways of grasping what is going on in the world. We shouldn’t be suspicious of statistics-we need to understand what they mean and how they can improve our lives. That’s a mistake, Tim Harford argues in The Data Detective.

Today we think statistics are the enemy, numbers people use to mislead and confuse. Statistics can be used to illuminate reality with clarity and honesty.From “one of the great (greatest?) contemporary popular writers on economics” (Tyler Cowen) comes a smart, lively, and encouraging rethinking of how to use statistics. Bad statistics are a warning sign that something may be wrong with the data, not with the statistic itself. We have to stop dismissing bad statistics out of hand. It is also the most complex, as it requires contact tracing to determine who has the virus and when they contracted it, as well as rapid testing to determine who is infected. The current COVID-19 outbreak is the largest in history, with over 60,000 deaths. The study itself can be based on a very small sample size, which makes it extremely hard to prove or disprove the claims. The statistics used to prove or disprove the safety of a drug or vaccine are based on the results of a study. Every time a patient arrived in a hospital with cancer, nurses would randomly select someone else in the same hospital of the same sex and about the same age. How to Lie with Statistics explains the ways in which statistics can be manipulated and used to deceive the public.ĭoll and Hill’s first study was on lung cancer and smoking, and it began on New Year’s Day 1948.

Insights from Chapter 12 Insights from Chapter 1 Insights on Tim Harford's The Data Detective Contents

The data detective book